Everything Wide Open Going into Final Group Stage Matches and the Odds that Your Team Will Advance

The final group stage matches begin today and everything is wide open.  Only in Group B, where the Netherlands and Chile have qualified for the knock-out round, have the results so far given any clarity as to how the rest of the World Cup might play out.  In the rest of the groups at least three–and sometimes all four teams–could still move on to the knockout round.  Brazilian megasite globoesporte.com gives the odds for each team going through.  The odds are based on the number of points each team has already earned, who each team’s opponent is in the final match, and where they sit in terms of tie-breakers.  If a team has to score a boatload of goals to make up a negative goal differential, the way the Portugal does, then that team’s odds of going through are lower.  The odds are as follows:

Group A

Brazil – 95%
Mexico – 66%
Croatia – 39%
Cameroon – Out

Group B

Netherlands – In
Chile – In
Spain – Out
Australia – Out

Group C

Colombia – In
Côte d’Ivoire – 54%
Greece – 36%
Japan – 10%

Group D

Costa Rica – In
Italy – 57%
Uruguay – 43%
England – Out

Group E

France – 99%
Switzerland – 57%
Ecuador – 39%
Honduras – 5%

Group F

Argentina – In
Nigeria – 77%
Iran – 23%
Bosnia-Herzogovina – Out

Group G

Germany – 99%
USA – 83%
Ghana – 14%
Portugal 4%

Group H

Belgium – In
Algeria – 52%
Russia – 46%
South Korea – 2%

Whether the United States goes through could still be determined by a coin flip.  If Germany beats the USA 3-0 and Portugal beats Ghana 2-0 then the two teams will be tied in goals scored and goals allowed.  Because they tied head-to-head, there would be no alternative to breaking the tie other than a coin flip.

How do you like your team’s odds?  Who do you think will go through?  How have you been enjoying the Cup so far?  Comment below!